Speculation over the next target of on-chain investigator ZachXBT has triggered a surge of activity on Polymarket, where traders have wagered nearly $3 million on which crypto firm could soon face insider-trading allegations.
The flurry of bets followed a post on X in which ZachXBT said he would release a “major investigation” on February 26 involving one of the industry’s most profitable companies. While he did not name the firm, the mere suggestion of insider trading was enough to send prediction market participants scrambling.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform that lets users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes with real capital, quickly became the venue for that speculation. Because traders must commit funds rather than simply share opinions, odds on the platform are often interpreted as a live snapshot of market conviction. The platform gained mainstream recognition during the 2024 U.S. election cycle and has since become a widely watched sentiment indicator within crypto.
As of Tuesday morning in Asia, Meteora has emerged as the frontrunner, holding 43% odds. Roughly $319,000 has been wagered specifically on that outcome. The Solana-based liquidity protocol has frequently appeared in community discussions about meme coin market structure, including how liquidity is seeded at launch and who benefits from early price action. The project did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Behind Meteora, Axiom stands at 13%, while Pump.fun follows at 12%. Notably, Pump.fun has attracted the largest single-outcome volume — approximately $332,000 — suggesting active two-sided trading rather than clear consensus. The platform has previously faced scrutiny over alleged early-access advantages, which it has denied.
Jupiter sits at 8%, reflecting broader scrutiny of Solana DeFi routing and fee capture mechanisms. MEXC holds 7%, amid ongoing social media chatter about listing practices and trading activity surrounding meme coin launches.
Odds have evolved significantly since the market first opened. Early favorites such as Axiom, Pump.fun, and Jupiter have each declined between 37% and 42%, while Meteora has strengthened its position. The shift suggests that initial wide-ranging guesses have consolidated into more concentrated bets as traders dissect ZachXBT’s prior investigations and posting patterns for clues.
Still, prediction markets measure belief — not evidence. The pricing reflects the collective speculation of market participants rather than confirmed insight into the forthcoming report.
For now, Polymarket is serving its core function: transforming rumors into risk, and requiring traders to put capital behind their assumptions instead of simply amplifying them online.
