Bitcoin’s security model, long considered mathematically robust, could be disrupted by quantum computing within the next decade, according to a new report from consulting firm Capgemini.
The report warns that public-key cryptographic systems like RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) — the foundation of Bitcoin’s private key security — may soon be vulnerable to quantum attacks. Specifically, algorithms like Shor’s, designed for quantum machines, can theoretically break the discrete logarithm problem that protects Bitcoin wallets.
While the report does not mention Bitcoin directly, the implications are clear: ECC, the same cryptographic system securing crypto wallets and transaction signatures, is at risk. That concern applies to most blockchains, not just Bitcoin.
Capgemini surveyed 1,000 large organizations across 13 countries. Seventy percent said they are already preparing for or deploying post-quantum cryptography (PQC) — next-generation encryption designed to resist quantum threats. Yet only 15% were considered truly “quantum-ready,” and just 2% of cybersecurity budgets globally are allocated to quantum preparedness.
The report also highlighted a growing concern over “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks — where adversaries collect encrypted data today to break it once quantum computing matures. This is particularly relevant for blockchains, where public keys are often exposed. In Bitcoin’s case, more than 25% of all BTC sits in addresses where the public key has already been revealed — including early “pay-to-pubkey” wallets, like those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
In response, Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp and a team of researchers recently proposed a phased plan to secure legacy wallets. Their draft outlines a method to freeze coins tied to vulnerable addresses and migrate them to quantum-resistant formats — a move they describe as unprecedented in Bitcoin’s history.
“This proposal is radically different from any in Bitcoin’s history — just as the threat posed by quantum computing is radically different from any other threat in Bitcoin’s history,” the authors stated, as reported by CoinDesk.
Though the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) — often called “Q-Day” — is still speculative, Capgemini notes that breakthroughs in error correction, hardware design, and algorithm efficiency have accelerated. Some experts believe such a machine could emerge by 2030.
Governments are already moving to address the risk. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) plans to phase out RSA and ECC by 2035, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized new PQC standards, including algorithms like Kyber and Dilithium.
Major tech firms such as Cloudflare, Apple, and Amazon Web Services have begun integrating post-quantum encryption. However, as of mid-July, no major blockchain — including any with tokens in the top 10 by market cap — has transitioned to quantum-resistant cryptography.
For now, the quantum threat remains theoretical. But as the field advances, Bitcoin’s reliance on current cryptographic systems may require proactive changes. The global cryptographic reset is no longer a distant scenario — and the race to adapt has already begun.
