Crypto Markets Mixed as BTC/JPY Faces Technical Test; XRP, ETH, SOL Show Bearish Momentum
Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost BTC Outlook, But Yen Strength and Bearish Patterns Cloud Near-Term Trend
Expectations for aggressive U.S. rate cuts in 2026 are rising, fueling a medium-term bullish case for Bitcoin. Yet in the near term, technical setups across major crypto pairs — especially BTC/JPY — and signs of yen strength are creating potential headwinds.
Bitcoin (BTC/JPY): Descending Triangle Raises Caution
Bitcoin’s USD price remains below $120,000 and is stuck near key intraday averages, offering little short-term clarity. In contrast, the BTC/JPY pair is showing a clear descending triangle pattern at all-time highs, drawing attention from traders.
This structure, marked by lower highs and flat support near ¥17,160,000 (~$117,000), typically signals weakening bullish momentum. A breakdown below this support would confirm the bearish setup and could trigger further losses.
Still, a bullish breakout above the descending trendline could spark a rally to new highs, particularly as markets are now pricing in 76 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2026 — a significant jump from April’s 25-basis-point projection. Rising long-term bond yields also suggest expectations of continued fiscal support.
AI Insight: BTC/JPY’s consolidation within a descending triangle reflects near-term risk despite broader bullish trends. Yen strength could reinforce the bearish case.
BTC/JPY Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $120,000, $121,181
- Support: $116,000, $115,739, $111,965
Yen Strength Could Pressure Crypto Assets
While looser U.S. monetary policy supports Bitcoin over time, a stronger Japanese yen could weigh on BTC/JPY. The U.S.-Japan 30-year bond yield spread has narrowed to its lowest since August 2022, signaling a potential JPY rally.
A stronger yen may trigger broader risk-off sentiment, potentially limiting upside across crypto markets.
XRP: Key Fib Level Tested After 10% Drop
XRP has tumbled over 10% in the last 24 hours, with the decline pausing at the $2.99 level — a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $1.90. The brief recovery to $3.10 lacks conviction, with bearish momentum indicators flashing red.
The Guppy multiple moving average and Ichimoku cloud both show bearish alignment. A break below $2.99 could open the door to $2.57, the 61.8% retracement level. Bulls must reclaim $3.35 to shift sentiment.
AI Insight: XRP’s chart structure confirms a bearish shift. Failure to hold $2.99 risks deeper downside.
XRP Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $3.35, $3.65, $4.00
- Support: $2.99, $2.65, $2.57
Ethereum (ETH): Channel Breakdown Builds
ETH is sliding lower in a descending channel, with bearish crossover signals from the 50- and 100-hour SMAs. The 200-hour SMA is losing its bullish tilt, and price action is now below the Ichimoku cloud.
The trend favors continued downside unless ETH climbs back above $3,740. A break below $3,593 (the 200-hour SMA) could extend losses.
AI Insight: ETH is in a controlled downtrend; losing the 200-hour SMA could accelerate selling.
ETH Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $3,740, $4,000, $4,109
- Support: $3,593, $3,480, $3,081
Solana (SOL): Mirrors ETH’s Bearish Setup
Solana is tracing a similar path to Ether, forming a descending channel and remaining under the cloud. The Guppy indicator has also turned bearish.
Price needs to break above $192 to reverse near-term weakness. Until then, expect resistance at the top of the channel and potential support tests below.
AI Insight: SOL’s trend remains firmly bearish unless a breakout above $192 occurs.
SOL Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $192, $200, $218
- Support: $179, $163 (200-day SMA), $145
