Bitcoin Faces Potential Breakdown Amid Seasonal Slowdown, Says 10x Research
Bitcoin (BTC) has stalled just under the $120,000 mark, and its recent rally appears to be running out of steam as the market enters what has historically been one of its weakest periods, according to a new report from 10x Research.
August has proven difficult for bitcoin over the past ten years, delivering losses in most years, often ranging from 5% to 20%, the report noted. Only three Augusts have closed in the green — all during major bull markets.
Adding to the concern is a slowdown in capital inflows to the Bitcoin network, which has played a key role in price strength this year. While cumulative inflows in 2025 now stand at $206 billion and total network inflows have topped $1 trillion, the 30-day rolling average has slipped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion — a potential early signal of a cooling market.
“Time is running short,” said Markus Thielen, co-founder and lead analyst at 10x Research. “Despite heavy corporate treasury inflows, the price reaction has been underwhelming. It raises doubts about whether the market can meet bullish expectations.”
Thielen’s team warns that BTC could soon break below $117,000, with possible downside support levels at $112,000 and a deeper floor between $106,000 and $110,000.
Still, some optimism remains. In each of the past three post-halving years — 2013, 2017, and 2021 — bitcoin bucked the August trend and posted strong gains. With 2025 also being a post-halving year, bulls may find reason to hope history repeats.
