Bitcoin Undervalued Against Gold as Volatility Hits Historic Lows, JPMorgan Says
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a discount relative to gold as its volatility falls to record lows, according to a research note from JPMorgan (JPM) on Thursday.
The bank highlighted that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has dropped from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to about 30%, marking its lowest level on record. With volatility approaching that of gold, BTC is now only twice as volatile, the narrowest gap ever observed.
JPMorgan analysts said this compression makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional investors. On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise roughly 13%, implying a price near $126,000, to match gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By their calculations, BTC is currently undervalued by around $16,000 versus gold, suggesting room for upside.
The report, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, links the trend to growing corporate treasury adoption, with institutional holders now controlling over 6% of total Bitcoin supply—similar to how central bank quantitative easing once reduced bond volatility.
Corporate adoption is further supported by equity index inclusion, which attracts passive capital inflows. For example, Metaplanet (3350) was upgraded to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, and Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) is planning a $5 billion raise following a $679 million Bitcoin purchase.
New entrants, including ventures led by Adam Back, aim to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury holdings, following the strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s MSTR, JPMorgan added.
