Tiger Research Sees Bitcoin Rallying Toward $190K on Institutional Wave
Bitcoin (BTC) could climb as high as $190,000 in the third quarter, according to a new forecast from Tiger Research, which points to record liquidity, surging ETF demand, and the opening of U.S. retirement accounts to crypto as the strongest backdrop since 2021.
The firm’s model establishes a base price of $135,000, then applies multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%) to arrive at the $190,000 target — a potential 67% upside from recent levels near $113,000.
Tiger highlights three major drivers: the global money supply surpassing $90 trillion, ETFs and corporate treasuries now holding more than 6% of bitcoin’s supply, and a new executive order allowing 401(k) plans to allocate to crypto. Even a modest 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion retirement pool could translate into $90 billion in demand, the firm said.
Institutional accumulation is already visible. ETFs collectively hold 1.3 million BTC, while MicroStrategy controls more than 629,000 coins worth about $71 billion. On-chain data also shows larger block transfers dominating over smaller retail trades, signaling a clear institutional footprint.
Still, Tiger cautions that activity on the Bitcoin network remains subdued, with transactions and user counts below last year’s levels. Metrics such as MVRV-Z at 2.49 and ASOPR at 1.019 indicate profit-taking risks, even as NUPL at 0.558 suggests the market isn’t yet overheated.
“Bitcoin looks structurally stronger than in past cycles, but retail engagement must return for the rally to fully mature,” the report concluded.
