Bitcoin (BTC) enters September under typical seasonal pressure, with historical data showing losses in nine of the last 14 Septembers, averaging around 12%.
The largest cryptocurrency opened the week near $110,000, its weakest level in nearly two months, while total crypto market capitalization fell to $3.74 trillion, a three-week low. Over the past 24 hours, Solana (SOL) led gains at 4%, with XRP up 1% and Cardano (ADA) rising 1.5%.
Traders cite macro uncertainty, thin volumes, and fragile sentiment as factors leaving little room for error. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, warned that BTC’s inability to hold $112,000 could trigger a decline toward $105,000, a critical support level before the psychological $100,000 barrier.
The crypto fear index dropped to 40, its lowest since April, signaling rising caution. Historical trends reinforce the risk: September drawdowns in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 often coincided with liquidity squeezes and macro jitters.
ETF flows mirror these dynamics. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $440 million in net outflows last week, while Ether ETFs posted $1 billion in inflows, suggesting rotation rather than net capital growth. Spot ETFs now hold 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of supply.
Investors are watching the U.S. non-farm payrolls report Friday, expected at 45,000 jobs. A weak reading could fuel expectations for a Fed rate cut, boosting risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, options data show strong demand for puts, highlighting a cautious market stance.
