As investors await Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, implied volatility points to moderate price swings for major cryptocurrencies, with XRP and Solana (SOL) likely to see above-average movement.
Volmex data shows Bitcoin (BTC) one-day implied volatility at 43.8, indicating a 24-hour expected swing of 2.29%. Ether (ETH) is at 3.7%, XRP 4%, and SOL 4.86%, reflecting heightened sensitivity in mid-cap tokens. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reduce bets on Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets.
Derivatives Activity
- Ether’s open interest on USDT- and USD-denominated perpetual contracts fell to 1.93 million ETH, a four-week low.
- Solana perpetuals dipped below 11 million SOL, risking the validation of a four-week uptrend.
- CME Bitcoin futures remain subdued, but options saw 47.23K BTC in open interest, totaling $5.21 billion, the highest since November. Out-of-the-money puts are rising as traders hedge against a potential payroll surprise.
- Offshore markets show similar trends, with ETH futures OI down and short-term premiums increasing. BTC puts continue trading at a premium across all tenors, signaling downside caution.
Memecoin Activity
The memecoin sector, which faded after early 2025 hype around TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, shows renewed momentum. Both previous tokens fell sharply (-88% and -95%), but MemeCore, a new DeFi-focused platform, surged 261% in the past week. The MemeX liquidity festival, offering $5.7 million in rewards, drove most trading via PancakeSwap, indicating strong retail engagement.
Renewed memecoin interest could spill over to Solana-based platforms like Pump.fun, which has seen daily revenues fall from $15.8 million in January to $1.5–$2.5 million this week.
