Bitcoin, Ether, XRP Face September Volatility After Major Whale Sell-Off
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just under $112,000 on Monday as investors weighed the impact of the largest whale sell-off in over two years against signs of long-term accumulation and resilient altcoin activity.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that more than 100,000 BTC—valued at approximately $12.7 billion—have moved out of major wallets in the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy called it “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $108,000. The move mirrors aggressive position reductions seen in July 2022.
“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. Reduced ETF inflows and thinner trading volumes have left the market more sensitive to macroeconomic drivers.
Longer-term indicators remain constructive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a relatively mild retracement compared with past corrections. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave highlighted that the one-year moving average has risen from $52,000 a year ago to $94,000, and is expected to surpass $100,000 in October—signaling a structural uptrend.
Supply metrics also support a positive outlook. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, noted that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with over 70% held in wallets showing minimal spending history. “Confidence in long-term value remains evident,” Lee said. He forecasts BTC stabilizing and regaining momentum within a $105,000–$118,000 range, aided by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.
Ethereum (ETH) traded near $4,307, with projections of $4,100–$4,600 if ETF demand continues. Upcoming network upgrades and DeFi catalysts could provide additional upside.
Altcoins showed moderate gains: XRP rose 2.3% to $2.96, Solana (SOL) climbed 3.2% to $214, Dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly gain to $0.236, and Cardano (ADA) added 6% to $0.865.
Sentiment remains cautious. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization rose 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but remains below its 50-day average. “This signals limited risk appetite,” he said, adding that the sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before rebounding to 51 on Monday.
Seasonal September weakness adds another layer of caution. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, emphasized that upcoming U.S. inflation data could determine market direction. “Higher-than-expected numbers may pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum, while lower figures could trigger a rally,” he said.
