Polymarket’s Top Trader Wagers on 50bps Fed Rate Cut as Markets Eye Inflation Data
September 10, 2025
A leading trader on Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, has bet that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut next week, bucking the market’s general expectation of a 25 bps reduction.
JustWakingUp, Polymarket’s most prolific trader with nearly $400 million in total trading volume and over $2 million in profits, has staked $15,000 on rates falling to 3.75%. The position is currently up 3%, with potential gains of around $226,000 if the larger cut occurs.
Most traders expect a 25 bps reduction, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability. Still, the odds for a 50 bps cut have jumped to nearly 10% following the U.S. jobs report, which revised 911,000 fewer jobs added over the year ending March 2025—the largest downward adjustment on record.
Financial heavyweights like BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also called for a 50 bps cut. Investors now turn to the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday; softer readings could boost expectations for aggressive easing, potentially lifting bitcoin and stock markets.
