Coinbase Sees Crypto Rally Continuing into Q4
Coinbase analysts are maintaining a positive outlook for the crypto market in the fourth quarter, pointing to strong liquidity, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and favorable regulatory signals as key factors sustaining the rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) $115,932.17, the analysts noted, remains well-positioned amid these macro tailwinds and could exceed market expectations. “Unless there’s a major shock to energy prices, the immediate risk to U.S. monetary policy appears low,” they said. On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is also expected to provide a floor for prices.
While historical seasonality has raised concerns—BTC fell in six consecutive Septembers from 2017 to 2022—the analysts noted that this pattern did not repeat in 2023 or 2024. Limited historical data and wide outcome variability reduce the predictive value of seasonal trends.
A more significant factor is the current stage of the DAT cycle. As of September 10, publicly disclosed DATs hold more than 1 million BTC ($110 billion), 4.9 million ETH ($21.3 billion), and 8.9 million SOL ($1.8 billion).
Late-market participants are now targeting altcoins further down the risk spectrum, creating a “player-versus-player” dynamic that favors large-cap tokens while potentially leading to consolidation among smaller DAT holders.
Overall, Coinbase expects liquidity, macroeconomic support, and regulatory momentum to keep crypto markets well-supported throughout Q4.
