Ethereum’s Underperformance Against Bitcoin Signals Waning Bull Cycle Returns, Analyst Says
Ether (ETH) has recorded its weakest performance against bitcoin (BTC) in any bull market since Ethereum’s launch in 2015, reinforcing a trend of diminishing returns relative to BTC over successive cycles.
Analyzing historical ether-to-bitcoin ratios, data shows that with each cycle, ETH has struggled to keep pace with BTC. The current cycle, which began in November 2022 when bitcoin hit a low of $15,500 after the FTX collapse, continues this pattern of underperformance.
On Wednesday, the ETH/BTC ratio dipped below 0.0300, touching 0.02993—a four-year low. The last comparable low was on January 19, just before President Trump’s inauguration. This month alone, the ratio has dropped 15%, contributing to a 44% decline over the past year.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000, rebounding from a dip to $98,000 following the launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI platform. Meanwhile, ether sits at $3,202 and would need to climb to approximately $3,360 to erase recent losses.
Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise’s European division, believes bitcoin’s strength is the key factor behind the declining ETH/BTC ratio. “Ethereum is stuck in a tough position—it’s not as efficient as newer smart contract networks like Solana (SOL), yet it doesn’t offer the same store-of-value appeal as bitcoin,” Dragosch explained.
