Semler Scientific Trades Far Below Strive Takeout Value Amid Bitcoin Treasury Deal
Shares of Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $32.06 yesterday, well below the $86.30 implied takeout price in its all-stock acquisition by Strive (ASST). Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that the unusually wide arbitrage spread reflects both market caution and potential upside amid the growing bitcoin treasury M&A trend.
Palmer reiterated his buy rating on Semler while lowering the price target from $101 to $86 to reflect Strive’s deal terms. The fixed exchange ratio of 21.05 Strive shares per Semler share provides a potential arbitrage opportunity, particularly with both boards having approved the merger.
The combination would merge Strive’s 5,886 BTC with Semler’s 5,021 BTC, totaling 10,907 bitcoins — ranking 12th among publicly traded companies by bitcoin holdings, trailing only Strategy, Benchmark noted.
Beyond bitcoin, the merger gives Strive access to Semler’s diagnostics business, which it plans to monetize or spin off post-closing, providing cash-flow flexibility beyond purely crypto-based assets.
Benchmark sees the deal as the first step in a potential wave of stock-for-stock bitcoin treasury consolidations. By leveraging equity instead of debt, Strive aims to acquire BTC at favorable prices while avoiding traditional financing risks.
However, risks remain: the merger depends on an effective S-4 registration and Semler shareholder approval. Any significant decline in Strive’s share price or bitcoin before the vote could pressure deal terms. “If Strive’s price weakens materially into the vote, the implied value to SMLR drops, potentially triggering renegotiation or widening the arbitrage haircut,” Benchmark said.
Premarket, SMLR shares rose 2.5% to $32.86, while ASST fell 4.9% to $3.90.
