Bitcoin Demand Strengthens, Eyeing Potential $200K Rally in Q4 – 3/10/2025
Bitcoin has seen steady demand growth since July, setting the stage for a possible late-year rally toward $200,000.
Data from CryptoQuant shows monthly demand rising by roughly 62,000 BTC, echoing patterns observed in previous Q4 periods of 2020, 2021, and 2024 when Bitcoin prices surged sharply. Historically, consistent growth in demand has preceded major price rallies.
Whales and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are driving much of this momentum. Large-holder balances are increasing at an annualized rate of 331,000 BTC—surpassing the 255,000 BTC pace of Q4 2024 and the 238,000 BTC recorded in Q4 2020. This contrasts sharply with the 197,000 BTC contraction during the weaker 2021 market. ETFs may add further fuel, having purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024—a 71% jump—and could increase allocations through year-end.
Price momentum remains a key factor. On-chain analysis identifies the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000 as a critical threshold. A decisive move above this level would signal a shift into the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, potentially opening a Q4 valuation range between $160,000 and $200,000.
This indicator compares Bitcoin’s market price against realized price metrics—the average cost basis of different investor groups on-chain. Prices above these levels indicate a bullish phase with rising momentum and profits for holders, while prices below signal a bearish phase with stress and unrealized losses.
As October begins, market conditions closely resemble those of last year. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has remained in the 40–50 range, historically marking the edge of bullish territory. In 2024, the index climbed above 50 at the start of Q4, preceding Bitcoin’s rise from around $70,000 to $100,000.
With demand metrics strengthening and momentum building, traders are closely watching for a repeat of last year’s late-year rally.
