Bitcoin’s Long-Term Indicators Point to More Bullish Potential
While some investors view Q4 as marking the end of the current cycle, long-term metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s bull market may still have significant upside.
Many market participants are approaching Q4 through an end-of-cycle lens, but Glassnode data highlights two key signals pointing in the opposite direction. The 200-week moving average (200WMA)—a widely followed long-term trend indicator—has recently crossed $53,000, continuing its historically upward trajectory.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized price—the average price at which all circulating BTC last moved on-chain—has climbed above the 200WMA to $54,000, signaling potential bullish momentum.
Historical cycles reinforce this view:
- In the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized price stayed consistently above the 200WMA, widening the gap before eventually falling below it and marking the start of bear markets.
- During the 2022 downturn, the realized price dropped below the 200WMA, but it has recently moved back above it.
Historically, when Bitcoin’s realized price remains above the 200-week moving average, the market has tended to push higher, suggesting that the bull market may be far from over.
