Polymarket bettors are wagering that the U.S. government will remain shut past October 15, though they do not expect the closure to exceed the record set during the first Trump administration in 2018–2019.
Currently, the market assigns a 72% probability that government operations will resume on or after October 15, based on $1.4 million in trading activity within a $4 million contract tied to that timeframe.
A separate contract focused on shutdown duration gives a 67% chance that it will last 10–29 days, while the odds of a shutdown extending beyond a month—enough to break the historical record—stand at just 27%.
Some analysts suggest the political deadlock may have played a role in Bitcoin’s recent rally, which pushed the cryptocurrency above $125,000.
Congress remains in a stalemate, with recent funding proposals failing to secure the votes necessary to reopen the government.
