Bitcoin’s historic four-year market cycle may no longer dictate price movements, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom. With global monetary policy shifting toward more accommodative measures and fiat liquidity set to expand, Hayes argues the current bull market is likely to continue.
Hayes pointed out that previous bear markets—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—were driven primarily by monetary tightening in major economies rather than the four-year halving cycle. On each occasion, BTC plunged 70%–80% from its bull-market peak. CoinDesk highlighted a similar perspective in 2023, noting that Bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle correlates more closely with fiat liquidity than halving events.
“Traders are looking to history and expecting the bull run to end,” Hayes wrote in his essay “Long Live the King!” “But the four-year cycle is dead. Expanding fiat liquidity will sustain the rally.”
Understanding the Halving Cycle
Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, cutting the per-block mining reward. Historically, this event has led to a bull run, followed by a bear market 16–18 months later. The most recent halving took place in April 2024, raising concerns about a potential downturn.
Why This Cycle is Different
Hayes argues the current market is unique due to continued monetary easing worldwide:
- In the U.S., President Trump advocates growth-focused policies, unlocking home equity and reducing debt.
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% in September 2025, with additional cuts expected over the next year.
- Japan may adopt ultra-stimulatory policies under its new prime minister.
- China’s focus on ending deflation suggests liquidity will remain ample, supporting BTC price gains.
“Washington and Beijing are signaling that money will be cheaper and more plentiful. Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,” Hayes said.
With liquidity set to expand and accommodative policies in place, Hayes believes the traditional four-year cycle no longer constrains Bitcoin’s trajectory, leaving the current bull market poised for continuation.
