Crypto Markets Rise Ahead of Fed Rate Cut, BOJ Decision, and Trump–Xi Summit
Cryptocurrencies advanced on Sunday as traders positioned for a pivotal week marked by global central bank meetings and high-profile corporate earnings.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.7% in 24 hours to trade near $113,600, extending a three-day winning streak fueled by renewed risk appetite and expectations of monetary easing.
Fed Expected to Deliver Another Rate Cut
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% on Wednesday, bringing total easing since last September to 150 bps.
Futures data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows nearly full confidence in another 25-bps move at the December meeting as well, with further cuts anticipated in 2026 — a trend that has supported bitcoin and other risk assets.
BTC has rebounded from its 200-day moving average near $108,800, but faces immediate resistance at the 50-day SMA around $114,250, a key level for confirming a short-term bullish breakout.
Other large-cap tokens also rallied: XRP surged past its 200-day SMA at $2.60, while Ether (ETH) climbed to $4,172, and Solana (SOL) rose to $200.35, each adding about 3% on the day.
Powell’s Dovish Lean and Balance Sheet Clues
The upcoming Fed policy statement will be released without new projections, putting the spotlight on Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. Analysts expect Powell to emphasize labor-market risks over inflation, reinforcing expectations for further easing in the months ahead.
He’s also likely to address the U.S. government shutdown’s limited impact on forecasts, with September projections still pointing to 3% inflation in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
Another focus will be the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. Powell recently suggested the central bank is nearing the point of ending balance sheet runoff, as banking reserves slipped below $3 trillion, signaling tighter liquidity conditions.
An eventual halt to QT — even without new asset purchases — could buoy market sentiment and offer an additional tailwind to cryptocurrencies.
BOJ Policy and ‘Mag 7’ Earnings Next
The Bank of Japan will deliver its rate decision Thursday, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to keep policy steady while updating growth and inflation forecasts. Markets currently price in no move this month, but anticipate a potential quarter-point cut by early 2026.
Meanwhile, corporate earnings from the “Magnificent 7” — including Apple, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft — could shape broader risk sentiment. Investors will be watching for signs of sustained AI-related spending, a key driver behind recent equity and crypto rallies.
Trump–Xi Talks Lift Trade Sentiment
Geopolitical optimism also boosted markets after U.S. Treasury officials confirmed progress toward a trade agreement with China.
President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit, raising hopes of a breakthrough.
“The threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods is effectively off the table,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, adding that the talks have laid the groundwork for a broader deal.
Any disappointment from the summit, however, could trigger renewed risk aversion — underscoring what could be a volatile week for global markets and digital assets alike.
