Global markets are on edge as traders bet that a Trump–Xi tariff breakthrough and a softer Federal Reserve stance could reinvigorate the waning “Uptober” rally — though lingering risks from rare-earth tensions and the U.S. government shutdown temper optimism.
Bitcoin traded around $114,000 early Tuesday in Hong Kong, while Ethereum hovered near $4,120, as investors navigated one of the most consequential weeks of the year — defined by U.S.–China diplomacy, a potential Fed policy pivot, and a heavy Big Tech earnings calendar.
Prediction market Polymarket shows traders assigning a 92% chance that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff deal by November 10, following a weekend of constructive talks in Malaysia. The proposed framework, expected to be formalized when Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Seoul on Thursday, helped lift sentiment across risk assets.
Bitcoin briefly hit $116,200 on Sunday before retreating, while shares of crypto miners and AI-linked firms such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN rose between 2% and 3%.
Yet, not all indicators point to a lasting thaw. Another Polymarket contract pegs the odds of China lifting its rare-earth export ban by year-end at just 36%, signaling that traders expect limited structural change despite potential headline progress on tariffs.
That divergence highlights the market’s belief that the summit may deliver a political win but stop short of a strategic reset.
In its latest commentary, Singapore-based QCP Capital said the outcome of the Trump–Xi meeting “may steer crypto’s short-term direction more than the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.” The firm pointed to speculation that the Fed could soon end its three-year quantitative tightening campaign, a move that would restore liquidity and support risk assets.
“Any signal that such a shift is imminent would re-anchor liquidity expectations,” QCP noted.
Despite recent optimism, Bitcoin is flat for October, threatening to end its seven-year “Uptober” streak of monthly gains.
QCP also warned that the 26-day U.S. government shutdown is clouding the Fed’s decision-making by limiting access to key economic data. Meanwhile, investors await earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google for clues about consumer and corporate strength.
On the derivatives front, BTC and ETH risk reversals have turned neutral after weeks of bearish skew, implying reduced fear of near-term downside.
Still, QCP emphasized that Bitcoin needs to close above $116,000 to confirm a bullish continuation. With geopolitics, policy, and liquidity converging, crypto markets face a volatile week that could determine whether “Uptober” extends its historic run or comes to an end.
Market Overview
- Bitcoin (BTC): Briefly surged to $116,200 before consolidating around $114,000, holding near cycle highs ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and the Fed’s policy announcement.
- Ethereum (ETH): Traded steadily near $4,120, reflecting cautious sentiment as investors await macro clarity.
- Gold: Rebounded to $4,021 per ounce after dipping below $4,000 on Monday, with rising Treasury yields and trade optimism weighing on haven demand.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s benchmark index slipped 0.38%, while Topix fell 0.49%, as traders awaited Trump’s first meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
