A tentative U.S.–China trade deal could open the door for Bitcoin (BTC) to resume its upward trajectory, according to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, as market sentiment steadies following this month’s steep correction.
Investors are closely watching the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in South Korea, which could define the near-term direction for global markets. The summit comes after Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1, in response to Beijing’s decision to tighten control over rare-earth mineral exports.
Trump has expressed confidence that an agreement will be reached, fueling optimism that easing geopolitical tensions could improve risk sentiment and support crypto assets.
Data from Amberdata show the volatility premium for downside puts over calls in Deribit’s BTC options has narrowed to 2–3%, down from around 5% after the Oct. 10 market crash triggered by tariff fears. This shift indicates a decline in demand for downside protection as traders grow less defensive.
Still, option flows remain skewed bearish since the sell-off, with traders favoring put longs, put spreads, and call overwriting strategies, reflecting caution ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.
Bitcoin has partially recovered, climbing to about $114,000 after dropping from $126,000 to nearly $105,000 earlier this month, according to CoinDesk data.
Deribit analysts said a credible breakthrough in U.S.–China talks could shift positioning toward renewed bullish exposure, potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher if macro conditions stabilize.
