10x Research Sees Rebound Potential as MicroStrategy’s $18B Slide Nears Exhaustion
MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC $109,992.98), has seen its market capitalization plunge by nearly $18 billion in recent months as its net asset value premium evaporated and investor enthusiasm faded. But according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, the worst may soon be over.
In a report released Wednesday, Thielen — previously cautious on the stock — said that improving volatility trends, strong Q3 earnings expectations, and renewed speculation about S&P 500 inclusion could set the stage for a turnaround.
“At current prices, with the NAV premium largely gone and sentiment near capitulation, MicroStrategy offers better relative value than bitcoin itself,” Thielen wrote.
MicroStrategy shares fell another 1.8% to below $280, leaving its market cap roughly aligned with the value of its bitcoin holdings — a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative optimism drove a large premium over intrinsic value.
Thielen expects the company to post roughly $3.6 billion in profit this quarter from mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin portfolio, which could reignite institutional interest and renew S&P 500 inclusion speculation. He now assigns a 60–70% probability that the company could join the index by December.
Such a move could channel as much as $28 billion in fund inflows, comparable to surges seen after Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) joined the benchmark index.
“Capitulation feels like the end — until it quietly becomes the beginning,” Thielen added.
