Coinbase Earnings Preview: Analysts See Strong Q3 but Split Over Long-Term Outlook
Wall Street expects Coinbase to beat Q3 estimates, but analysts remain divided on the company’s next phase of growth.
Coinbase (COIN) is set to release its third-quarter results on Thursday after the market close, with analysts broadly anticipating stronger revenue and earnings.
Consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet point to earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 on $1.8 billion in revenue, compared to $0.28 EPS and $1.2 billion in the same quarter last year.
While there is broad agreement that Coinbase will benefit from rising trading volumes, USDC yields, and blockchain rewards, views diverge on profit margins and strategic upside tied to its Base network and Deribit acquisition.
JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most bullish voice among major banks, upgrading Coinbase to Overweight and assigning a $404 price target for December 2026. Worthington argues a potential Base token could significantly increase shareholder value, estimating a $12 billion–$34 billion market cap with Coinbase retaining up to 40% — equivalent to $14–$42 per share in added equity value.
He also points to monetization opportunities through Coinbase One, noting that restricting USDC yield rewards to paying members could boost annual earnings by as much as $1 per share.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, maintaining an Equal Weight rating, expects a solid report but remains cautious. He predicts adjusted EBITDA 6% above consensus, driven by strong retail trading and higher USDC-related interest income. Budish projects $1.05 billion in transaction revenue and $771 million in subscriptions and services, both exceeding Street expectations. However, he trimmed his price target to $361 from $365, citing broader market valuation pressure.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel takes a more skeptical stance, reiterating a Sell rating. Engel expects modest earnings upside but warns that growth in lower-margin subscription and staking revenues could compress profitability. He also sees limited benefits from Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition, given intensifying competition from regulated U.S. exchanges such as CBOE.
Unlike Worthington, Engel made no mention of the Base token, signaling less confidence in its long-term impact.
Despite differing views, all three analysts agree that USDC has become a crucial earnings driver. Coinbase’s partnership with Circle (CRCL) continues to bolster revenue from stablecoin balances, though analysts debate how much the exchange can retain as it adjusts reward structures and expands its premium tiers.
As Coinbase deepens its focus on subscriptions, infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s earnings call will test not just near-term performance but also the competing narratives shaping its future valuation.
