Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support Despite Fed’s Hawkish Shift
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show resilience following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish tone, which cast doubt on another rate cut in December.
The leading cryptocurrency slipped as low as $109,250 following the Fed chair’s remarks before rebounding to around $111,000. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently near $109,250, remains the key level for bulls to defend — a line that has historically defined the broader market trend.
Maintaining support above that level is encouraging, but analysts warn that bitcoin remains vulnerable as long as it trades beneath the Ichimoku cloud — a key short-term trend indicator. Sustained weakness below the cloud could invite another wave of selling and increase the likelihood of a drop below the $100,000 psychological threshold.
A similar setup earlier this year led to a deeper correction in February, when BTC fell sharply to $75,000 after failing to reclaim the cloud.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop continues to weigh on risk assets. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has strengthened following a bullish crossover of its 50- and 100-day moving averages, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4%, signaling renewed upward pressure on rates.
Options markets echo this caution. Data from Amberdata show BTC puts on Deribit now trade at a 4%–5% volatility premium to calls, suggesting traders are increasingly positioning for downside risk.
For bullish sentiment to reassert itself, bitcoin must decisively break above the Ichimoku cloud near $116,000. Until then, the market is likely to remain range-bound with heightened volatility as traders await clearer signals on Fed policy direction.
