Bitcoin Weakens as Core Demand Fades, Traders Eye $85K
Bitcoin is showing signs of a softer market structure as the steady buying that supported prices earlier this year begins to wane. CryptoQuant notes that the cycle’s main demand wave has largely passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury-company purchases disappearing, and Strategy buys hitting their lowest levels of the year.
While this doesn’t signal an imminent collapse, upside potential is increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket traders are reflecting this caution, assigning the highest probability to a retest of $85,000 and placing minimal weight on upside scenarios.
Market Signals Turn Defensive
Glassnode highlights that short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest pace since the FTX crisis. ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets are in risk-off mode, with options traders favoring puts and implied volatility rising.
The Active Investor cost basis near $88,600 represents the next critical level. A sustained move below this threshold would put recent investors into losses for the first time this cycle, signaling growing bearish momentum. The next key support is the True Market Mean at around $82,000, which could mark the start of a bear market phase akin to 2022–2023 if breached.
The coming weeks will determine whether buyers can regain control or if the downturn deepens.
Market Snapshot
- Bitcoin (BTC): Around $92,000 after briefly dipping below $90,000 earlier this week.
- Ether (ETH): Near $3,038, modestly lower, tracking Bitcoin’s defensive tone.
- Gold: Around $4,067, after an intraday high of $4,132, amid rising risk aversion.
- Nikkei 225: Up 3.7% Thursday, boosted by strong Nvidia earnings and chip sector gains.
Crypto Highlights
- Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Bill Hill sentenced to four years for unlicensed money transmitting (CoinDesk).
- New Hampshire unveils $100 million Bitcoin-collateralized municipal bond (Decrypt).
- Bullish posts Q3 profits after adding options and U.S. spot trading (CoinDesk).
