VanEck reports that Bitcoin’s recent sell-off has been largely driven by mid-cycle holders, while long-term whales continue to hold steady, according to its “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.
Wallets containing coins moved within the past five years accounted for most of the selling pressure, the firm said, whereas coins untouched for more than five years continue to accumulate. Over the past two years, this long-term cohort has grown by roughly 278,000 BTC, signaling enduring confidence among older holders.
Bitcoin traded near multi-month lows, around $86,696 at 9:15 p.m. UTC on Thursday—down 3.2% over 24 hours and roughly 31% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts attribute the decline to forced liquidations, distribution by long-term holders, and elevated volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews that key drivers included long-term selling by “OG” holders, an uncertain economic environment, and a mass deleveraging event on October 10. “Older, large-balance holders have been selling for several weeks, creating a flood of supply hitting the market,” he said.
Finance professor Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex noted that offshore trading strategies, such as “spoofing” and “laddering,” have also amplified price swings.
VanEck’s data shows the 3–5 year coin cohort has dropped 32% over the past two years as these coins moved addresses—a trend linked to mid-cycle trader rotation rather than capitulation from decade-long holders.
Speculative positioning has also reset. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has fallen 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, while funding rates have declined to levels seen during previous “washed-out” periods. Meanwhile, smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased balances by 9% over six months and 23% over a year, even as the largest whales reduced holdings.
VanEck concluded that this combination of long-term holder stability, mid-cycle rotation, and futures-market capitulation has placed Bitcoin in a “reset” state—historically a setup that has preceded tactical rebounds
