Historical Data Signals Potential Downside for XRP, Targeting $1.50

XRP is struggling to regain momentum as it hovers near $2.20, facing resistance at $2.23–$2.24 while bearish technical indicators continue to dominate.

The token slipped below $2.20 after a daily death cross triggered renewed selling pressure, putting key support levels to the test. ETF inflows from Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ and Grayscale’s GXRP offered brief support, but could not sustain the upward move.

Binance exchange reserves dropped to 2.7 billion XRP — the lowest in over a year — after roughly 300 million XRP left the platform since October, signaling accumulation by long-term holders and institutional desks. Yet, spot demand has not been enough to offset short-term liquidation flows driven by derivatives unwinding and broader risk-off sentiment.

XRP’s fall from $2.22 to $2.18 confirmed rejection at the $2.23–$2.24 resistance, reinforcing a descending channel established over the past two weeks. Momentum indicators remain weak: RSI has consistently failed to reclaim its midline, MACD continues drifting lower, and price remains below key short-term moving averages, with the 50-day MA trending downward.

Despite near-term weakness, on-chain metrics suggest an underlying bid is forming. ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances indicate mid-term accumulation, even as short-term charts remain bearish. XRP briefly stabilized around $2.17–$2.18 before a minor overnight recovery to $2.21, keeping the token range-bound but vulnerable.

The $2.17–$2.18 zone is now critical. A breach could expose $2.08 and then $1.90, a key line separating routine correction from deeper retracement. Reclaiming $2.20 and breaking $2.23–$2.24 with strong volume is essential for a genuine rebound. Until the 50-day moving average is retaken, downside risk remains elevated, and ETF inflows alone are unlikely to counter near-term technical weakness.