Bitcoin is pricing in a recessionary environment, even as macroeconomic data points to improving growth.
André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, noted on Friday that bitcoin currently reflects the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Fed tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Using survey data from Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch highlighted a sharp divergence: bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has dropped below -1 standard deviation, while survey-based macro indicators remain near neutral. He compared the setup to March 2020 and November 2022, periods that preceded major bitcoin rallies.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, calling the risk-reward setup asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could resemble the sixfold surge after the March 2020 COVID shock.
Sentiment remains cautious. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, slightly above its year-to-date low of 10 from Nov. 22.
Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% over 24 hours, and 28% below its all-time high of $126,080 on Oct. 6. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing an 86.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
