CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that Strategy is shifting toward a more defensive footing, scaling back its bitcoin purchases and building a larger USD cushion as it prepares for what could be a softer market environment. Yet traders in prediction markets continue to price in a continuation of the company’s old accumulation playbook.
The report argues that Strategy is positioning itself for a potential multi-month BTC downturn. That outlook stands in stark contrast to Polymarket bettors, who still assume the company will behave much like it did during 2021’s aggressive buying cycle.
According to CryptoQuant, Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury arm is undergoing a clear structural transition. Instead of leaning into rapid accumulation, the firm is prioritizing balance-sheet resilience — establishing a standalone USD reserve and openly acknowledging the possibility of hedging or even selling in periods of market stress.
Prediction markets remain largely unmoved by these signals. Odds of a bitcoin sale in the first quarter remain extremely low on Polymarket, while the probability of regular small buys remains firmly elevated. Traders are still treating routine MSTR purchases as a base-case scenario, even as the size of those buys continues to decline.
The market gives only a 40%–45% chance that any new purchase exceeds 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant suggests that these smaller, optical buys — down more than 90% in monthly volume from the prior year — now function more as brand maintenance than meaningful supply absorption.
So far this year, Strategy’s average purchase size has fallen to 5,330 BTC from 15,133 BTC in 2024. Meanwhile, DAT inflows have dipped to their weakest point since mid-June, signaling that bitcoin treasury entities are no longer playing a major role in clearing new supply.
Collectively, shrinking treasury participation, fading DAT inflows, and a more cautious stance from MSTR point to a changing supply landscape as the market approaches 2026. Whether bitcoin can regain upward momentum may depend on fresh demand replacing the institutional accumulation that fueled the previous cycle.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin recovered from an early drop to $91,800 and steadied around $93,000. Its recent 10% two-day advance is now meeting resistance near the 2025 yearly open at roughly $93,400.
ETH: Ether climbed back above $3,100 and hit a two-week high near $3,200 after rising 3.5% on the day.
Gold: Gold edged slightly lower, holding just above $4,200 as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data. Heightened geopolitical risk and expectations of a softer dollar could provide support.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific equities were mixed Thursday, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix gained about 1.3% following strong U.S. labor data that boosted Wall Street and increased confidence in a Fed rate cut next week.
