U.S. inflation data for November, expected to show a 3.1% increase in the consumer price index (CPI), could influence Federal Reserve policy and shape market expectations.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been volatile over the past 24 hours, trading between $86,000 and $90,000 as investors await the report. The CPI release will provide the first clear look at price pressures since October, when a government shutdown canceled data, leaving the Fed without recent guidance. Consensus estimates forecast headline CPI at 3.1% year-on-year, up from October’s 3%, with core inflation also expected at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
“This report is particularly important because the October cancellation left the Fed and markets partially in the dark,” said Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. Investors will watch whether disinflation in services is holding and whether tariff-driven price pressures are fading.
If the data confirm easing inflation, markets may price in additional rate cuts in 2026, potentially boosting risk appetite, including for crypto. However, bitcoin has not responded strongly to recent economic data, such as the Tuesday jobs report, which showed unemployment at its highest since September 2021.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain stubbornly above 4%, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and Fed policy, which may weigh on risk assets. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push yields higher, pressuring BTC further.
Crypto-specific headwinds also persist. MSCI is reviewing the eligibility of digital-asset treasury companies, potentially excluding firms with over 50% crypto exposure. QCP Capital notes this could trigger passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion, adding strain to an already fragile market.
