Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Tops $1.125 Trillion, Casting Doubt on Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has hit a record $1.125 trillion, signaling that the crypto may still be in a bull market despite a nearly 40% drop in prices over the past 10 weeks.
Unlike total market capitalization, realized cap values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, reflecting actual capital inflows rather than speculative trading activity. Glassnode data shows that realized cap continued rising even during the 36% correction from October’s all-time high, though it has recently leveled off around $1.125 trillion. A similar pause occurred during April 2025’s tariff-related selloff, when bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 before rebounding to new highs.
By contrast, during the 2022 bear market, realized cap fell from roughly $470 billion to $385 billion as investors sold at lower cost bases—a reaction not currently observed.
Four-Year Cycle Narrative in Question
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the conventional four-year cycle, with potential upside surprises in 2026. He highlighted resilient global growth, ongoing rate cuts, and a steepening yield curve—all factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar, historically supportive for bitcoin.
“Bitcoin appears to materially underprice the prevailing macro backdrop, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, despite no signs of a U.S. recession and evidence of re-accelerating growth,” Dragosch said.
