Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurien Timmer, says the most recent bitcoin bull cycle has likely peaked, while underscoring the continued strength of gold’s advance.
A long-time bitcoin supporter, Timmer has grown more cautious on the cryptocurrency, arguing that its price action is once again conforming to the asset’s well-known four-year cycle. From both historical analogs and time-based analysis, he says the current phase closely mirrors prior cycles.
Bitcoin’s October high near $125,000 — achieved after roughly 145 months of cumulative gains — aligns well with that historical framework, according to Timmer. He notes that bitcoin bear markets, commonly described as crypto winters, have typically lasted about a year, leading him to view 2026 as a potential pause following the latest halving-driven rally.
“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X. “If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”
In contrast, Timmer highlighted gold’s resilience in 2025, noting that the metal remains firmly in a bull market while bitcoin has struggled. He does not expect a near-term convergence in performance between the two assets.
Gold is up roughly 65% year to date, outperforming growth in the global money supply, Timmer said. He added that gold has retained most of its gains during recent market pullbacks — behavior he views as consistent with a durable bull market.
