Cantor Fitzgerald Sees Signs of a Milder, More Institutional Crypto Winter in 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald anticipates the early stages of a new crypto winter, but one that may be less chaotic than previous downturns and increasingly shaped by institutional participation, DeFi, tokenization, and regulatory clarity.
According to the firm, Bitcoin (BTC $88,929.75) could be entering a prolonged correction, consistent with its historical four-year cycle. Analyst Brett Knoblauch notes that bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, and prices could remain under pressure for months, potentially testing Strategy’s (MSTR) average breakeven price near $75,000.
Unlike prior declines, this phase is unlikely to be defined by mass liquidations or structural failures. Institutional players, rather than retail traders, are driving market dynamics, creating a divergence between token price performance and activity beneath the surface, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.
Tokenization and Real-World Assets
Cantor highlights the rapid growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, including credit products, U.S. Treasuries, and equities. The total value of tokenized RWAs on-chain has tripled in 2025 to $18.5 billion, with projections suggesting it could exceed $50 billion in 2026 as financial institutions expand on-chain settlement experiments.
Decentralized Exchanges Gain Ground
The report also points to shifting trading patterns. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which operate without intermediaries, are gaining share from centralized venues. While overall trading volumes may fall alongside bitcoin prices in 2026, Cantor expects DEXs—especially those offering perpetual futures—to continue expanding as infrastructure and user experience improve.
Regulatory Clarity Provides a Boost
Regulatory developments are further shaping the market. The recent passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) in the U.S. establishes clear rules for when a digital asset is treated as a security versus a commodity and assigns primary oversight of spot crypto markets to the CFTC once decentralization thresholds are met. The framework could reduce headline risk, enable greater institutional engagement, and provide compliance pathways for decentralized protocols.
Emerging Trends and Opportunities
Cantor also highlights the rise of on-chain prediction markets, particularly in sports betting, where volumes have surpassed $5.9 billion—more than 50% of DraftKings’ Q3 handle. Companies such as Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Gemini (GEMI) are entering the sector, offering order book-driven alternatives to traditional sportsbooks.
Risks Remain
Despite optimism, risks persist. Bitcoin’s price sits roughly 17% above Strategy’s average cost basis, and a drop below that level could unsettle markets, though Cantor believes sales by the firm are unlikely. Additionally, digital asset trusts (DATs) have slowed accumulation as token prices and trust premiums compress.
While 2026 may not deliver crypto’s next major breakout, Cantor notes that the foundation for more durable infrastructure, deeper institutional adoption, and a more stable market appears to be solidifying even amid cooling prices
