U.S. Bitcoin ETFs See $516M in Outflows as Basis Trade Nears Critical Levels
U.S.-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their second-largest single-day outflows of 2025 on Monday, shedding $516.4 million as bitcoin’s price retreated toward $90,000, according to Farside data.
This marks the ninth net outflow in the past ten trading days, highlighting increasing caution among investors as BTC has struggled to sustain momentum within the $94,000-$100,000 range. By early Tuesday, bitcoin broke below key support, hitting a three-month low of $88,250.
Market structure signals suggest a shifting dynamic. Data from Velo shows that the CME bitcoin futures annualized basis—a measure of the spread between spot prices and futures contracts—has fallen to 4%, the lowest level since spot ETFs began trading in January 2024.
The declining basis weakens the profitability of the widely-used cash-and-carry trade, in which traders go long on spot BTC while shorting futures to capture a premium. With the current spread now sitting below the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 5%, funds employing this strategy may choose to exit, likely driving further ETF outflows and forced unwinding of futures positions.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes took to X to weigh in on the market shift, pointing to a potential cascading effect.
“Big funds holding IBIT went long ETF, short CME futures to lock in a premium. If that basis keeps falling, they’ll sell IBIT and cover their shorts. They’re already in profit, and with yields matching Treasuries, expect them to close out during U.S. hours. $70K, we coming!” Hayes wrote.
With ETF redemptions accelerating and macroeconomic uncertainties looming, bitcoin faces increased volatility in the days ahead.
