Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Ratio Signals Late-November Dip May Have Marked a Bottom
The ratio of short-term holder supply in profit versus supply in loss has historically aligned with the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
When Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to nearly $80,000 in late November, this ratio fell to 0.013 — a level that in prior cycles (2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022) corresponded with either local bottoms or the definitive bear market low, according to Glassnode.
Short-term holders, defined as investors holding BTC for less than 155 days, saw their supply in profit decline to roughly 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.
Since early 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded to about $94,000, up more than 7%. During this period, short-term holder supply in loss dropped to 1.9 million BTC, and supply in profit rose to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to roughly 0.45.
Historically, the ratio tends to rise above 1 as prices enter sustained upward trends. With the current ratio still below 0.5, there is ample room for further expansion, while market tops have typically emerged only when the ratio approaches 100.
