Bitcoin fell below $91,000 amid renewed tariff concerns from President Donald Trump, as options market data points to a heightened risk of further declines.
Traders on Derive.xyz, a decentralized platform for on-chain options, see roughly a 30% chance of bitcoin dropping below $80,000 by the end of June. Similar sentiment appears on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.
“Options markets show a clear downside skew, with a 30% probability BTC falls below $80K by June 26, versus a 19% chance it rises above $120K,” said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.
Open interest is concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, suggesting traders expect a drawdown into the mid-$70,000s. A drop below $80,000 would mark bitcoin’s lowest level since April 2025, when the cryptocurrency briefly fell to $75,000 amid sweeping U.S. tariffs.
Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced after Trump threatened a 10% levy on imports from 10 European nations over opposition to his Greenland plan, pushing bitcoin down from $95,000 to $91,000.
“Rising U.S.-Europe tensions — particularly around Greenland — increase the risk of higher volatility, which is not fully priced into spot markets,” Dawson said.
