Gold and silver extended their January rally on Thursday, inching closer to major price milestones as bitcoin (BTC $88,558) remained largely flat near $90,000, trading around $89,930.
Spot gold rose about 2.5% to trade near $4,950 per ounce, while silver jumped more than 6% to just under $99. The gains cap a strong month for precious metals, with gold up over 7% and silver soaring nearly 30%, far outperforming most major asset classes.
Prediction markets suggest traders view current levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts asking whether gold or ethereum will hit $5,000 first assign gold a 97% implied probability, with ETH still trading below $3,000. Month-end markets similarly cluster around gold finishing at or above $5,000 by the end of January, with minimal probability placed on lower outcomes. Silver markets show comparable conviction, with strong odds for prices above $85 and substantial positioning for a move to $100.
Analysts are increasingly bullish on metals. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900. For bitcoin, Polymarket traders largely anticipate it remaining range-bound near $85,000 through January.
Volatility patterns help explain the market dynamics. Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has surged into the high 60s, reflecting strong momentum, while gold’s volatility remains relatively contained in the low 20s, signaling a steadier, orderly repricing. Bitcoin’s realized volatility has compressed into the mid-30s even as prices hover near recent highs, highlighting a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.
