Bitcoin trader flags downside risk as gold rally draws attention away from BTC

Crypto prices steadied after an early-week pullback, but bitcoin continued to lag gold and silver as macro trades dominated markets following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.

Bitcoin remained under pressure as a firmer U.S. dollar and strength in commodities drew attention away from the crypto market. The largest cryptocurrency slipped below $88,500 on Thursday after briefly trading above $89,000 earlier in the session, extending a choppy week of price action.

Ether retreated toward $2,950, while solana, XRP and dogecoin posted steeper intraday losses of between 2% and 4%. The declines came alongside a strengthening dollar and fading momentum in broader risk markets, with crypto continuing to underperform commodities and equities.

Commodities remained the dominant theme. Gold hovered near record levels after topping $5,500 an ounce earlier this week, while silver and copper stayed elevated following sharp rallies. The strength across metals has been fueled by earlier dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical risks and demand for assets seen as stores of value amid uncertainty over government finances.

The dollar, meanwhile, rebounded sharply. The dollar index recorded its biggest one-day gain since November on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the administration’s support for a strong-dollar policy, pushing back against speculation that policymakers were comfortable with a prolonged depreciation.

The move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged after delivering three cuts late last year. Policymakers signaled they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before easing policy further.

While the Fed’s decision was widely anticipated, the steady-policy message helped calm currency markets after days of volatility tied to fiscal concerns and political pressure on the central bank.

That environment has left crypto largely sidelined. Bitcoin, often promoted as a hedge against currency debasement, has failed to keep pace with gold’s surge and is now trading roughly 30% below its October peak, even as metals and global equities hover near record highs.

Traders say bitcoin continues to behave more like a high-beta risk asset than a macro hedge, remaining sensitive to moves in the dollar and global liquidity rather than developing an independent narrative.

“Along with an 8% weakening of the dollar from April to June last year, bitcoin rose by more than 50%,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, in an email. “Without delving too deeply into history, it is easy to see that a 4% drop in the dollar index in less than two weeks was met with a 30% jump in silver and a 15% jump in gold.”

Kuptsikevich added that bitcoin is struggling technically. “Bitcoin continues to attempt to consolidate above $89,000. This resistance level, approaching a round number, is reinforced by the 50-day moving average. BTC’s position relative to this curve indicates a bearish market,” he said. “While it has successfully defended support near $85,000, fluctuations roughly a third below the highs of the past two months are a cause for pessimism.”

The past week reinforced that dynamic, with crypto lagging during the metals rally and failing to respond meaningfully to earlier dollar weakness.

With the Fed decision now behind markets, investor focus is shifting to megacap technology earnings and whether moves in equities, bonds or currencies trigger fresh cross-asset volatility.

Until then, bitcoin appears stuck in consolidation, holding key support levels but lacking the momentum to rejoin the trades currently dominating global markets.