Traders are closely watching a concentration of bids near $87,500 and recurring sell pressure just below $90,000, a dynamic that has turned price action into a tug of war heading into month-end.
Bitcoin’s trading behavior looked unusually flat earlier last month, even as equities and precious metals pushed to record highs. The cryptocurrency repeatedly failed to reclaim the $90,000 level — a stall that, in retrospect, set the stage for the sharp decline toward $75,000.
At the time, explanations ranged from a rotation into safer assets and softening crypto demand to choppy spot ETF flows and routine positioning around month-end. But some analysts argue the more important signals were already visible in the order book.
According to Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics firm Material Indicators, exchange data showed persistent sell-side liquidity sitting below $90,000, repeatedly capping rallies despite broadly supportive macro conditions.
Alan described the pattern as “liquidity herding,” a strategy in which large participants influence market behavior by steering prices toward levels that suit their positioning. By placing sizeable, visible sell orders, buying becomes psychologically riskier, discouraging follow-through and allowing prices to drift sideways or lower while larger players accumulate more quietly.
Rather than relying on news or fundamentals, the approach uses market structure itself to shape behavior. It often appears around options expiry, when keeping prices within a defined range can reduce losses or improve payouts for dominant traders.
At the same time, order-book data showed a thick band of bids building between roughly $85,000 and $87,500. That zone repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and functioned as a short-term floor during bitcoin’s consolidation.
“If that area held, it could have formed a base for another leg higher,” Alan said at the time. “But once it breaks, moves can accelerate quickly.”
That warning proved timely. When bitcoin fell through the lower edge of the bid cluster, selling intensified as thin liquidity magnified each move. The breakdown marked a decisive failure of the range that had constrained prices for weeks.
Over the weekend, bitcoin traded down into the $74,000–$76,000 range, highlighting the fragile standoff between dip buyers and forced sellers in a market still lacking depth.
Alan had earlier cautioned that a monthly close below roughly $87,500 — the opening level for 2026 — would signal a clear technical breakdown. He referred to such a scenario as “Bearadise,” a phase where weakening confidence allows downside momentum to reinforce itself.
The influence of large traders on short-term price action through visible liquidity placement is a familiar feature of crypto markets. Whales and high-frequency firms have long used order-book depth to shape expectations, often leaving smaller participants caught on the wrong side of the move.
In hindsight, the same order-book dynamics that kept bitcoin capped below $90,000 also made the market particularly vulnerable once key support finally gave way.
