A growing split in global sentiment is emerging in Bitcoin markets, with U.S. institutional investors maintaining exposure while offshore traders trim risk.
The divergence is most visible in futures pricing. On CME Group — a preferred venue for U.S. hedge funds and institutional desks — traders continue to pay a premium to hold long bitcoin positions, according to Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG. That premium, measured as the one-month annualized futures basis, remains higher than on offshore exchange Deribit.
“The more pronounced drop in offshore basis suggests reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure,” Cipolaro noted, adding that the spread between CME and Deribit has become a real-time indicator of regional risk appetite.
Bitcoin slid to around $60,000 earlier this month before rebounding. Some market participants attributed the sell-off to renewed concerns that advances in quantum computing could threaten bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations. However, NYDIG’s analysis suggests the data does not support that narrative.
Bitcoin’s price action has largely mirrored moves in publicly traded quantum-computing firms such as IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). If fears about quantum risks were driving crypto weakness, those stocks would likely have rallied while bitcoin declined. Instead, they fell in tandem, pointing to a broader pullback in speculative, long-duration assets.
Further undermining the theory, Google Trends data shows that searches for “quantum computing bitcoin” tend to increase when BTC prices rise, rather than during downturns — suggesting the narrative gains traction in bullish environments, not during sell-offs.
