Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $74,000 ahead of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, following eight consecutive daily gains. However, data from bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests caution: historically, FOMC meetings have often triggered short-term BTC weakness.
In 2025, bitcoin fell within 48 hours after seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even during May’s rally, post-meeting retracements were common, indicating that the event itself—rather than the policy outcome—drives volatility.
Markets are nearly certain the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, while futures anticipate only a single 25-basis-point cut by year-end, maintaining a “higher-for-longer” outlook. Kevin Warsh is expected to take over as Fed chair in June, adding another layer of attention.
Geopolitical risks and oil near $100 a barrel may keep CPI inflation elevated, limiting the Fed’s flexibility amid a softening jobs market.
Bitcoin’s strong momentum entering the meeting raises the risk of a classic “sell the news” reaction.
