Markets are heading into Friday’s quarterly “quadruple witching” event, a major derivatives expiry that could influence bitcoin and broader risk assets in the days ahead.
The event occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options and single-stock futures all expire simultaneously. The convergence typically drives a spike in trading volumes as investors close or roll positions, often increasing volatility in traditional markets.
While official data for the March 2026 expiry is not yet available, past events illustrate the scale. In March 2025, around $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives expired, with the session recording the highest S&P 500 trading volume of the year, according to TradeStation.
Such large expiries force institutional investors to rebalance portfolios, unwind hedges and adjust risk exposure in a compressed timeframe. Activity often intensifies into the final hour of trading, when liquidity peaks and price swings can accelerate.
This quarter’s event comes amid heightened macro uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices toward $120 per barrel, while gold has slipped below $4,600 and bitcoin has fallen under $69,000. Meanwhile, the VIX index recently climbed above 35, its highest level in a year, signaling elevated stress across financial markets.
Although quadruple witching is rooted in equities, its effects can spill into crypto. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional risk assets means sharp moves in equities can quickly transmit to digital markets.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said the event could drive cross-asset volatility, noting that the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) Index has been trending higher into the expiry.
Past data suggests bitcoin’s price action on the day of quadruple witching has typically been muted, with more significant moves occurring afterward.
In March last year, bitcoin showed limited reaction on the day but declined in the weeks that followed. A similar pattern emerged in June, when a modest drop on expiry day was followed by further downside within days.
September saw a small decline during the event, but a sharper sell-off unfolded in the following week. In December, bitcoin rose on the day, though it remained within a broader downtrend.
Overall, the pattern points to relatively subdued moves during the event itself, followed by weakness in the days to weeks after.
Even if Friday’s expiry does not trigger immediate volatility, crypto markets face their own key catalyst shortly after. On March 27, roughly $13.5 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire on Deribit, with positioning indicating a focus on volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.
