Bitcoin’s spot price may be stabilizing, but investor positioning continues to reflect caution, with reduced leverage and falling volatility signaling a defensive market tone.
In its mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, VanEck noted that traders are paying record-high premiums for downside protection—underscoring persistent risk aversion despite calmer price action.
The report shows bitcoin’s 30-day average price declined 19% from the previous period, while realized volatility dropped significantly from around 80 to just above 50. Meanwhile, futures funding rates eased to 2.7% from 4.1%, indicating a cooling in leveraged trading activity.
Options markets further highlight the cautious sentiment. The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77 and peaked at 0.84, marking its highest level since June 2021, around the time of the China Bitcoin mining crackdown.
Over the past 30 days, traders spent roughly $685 million on put options, while call premiums declined 12% to about $562 million. Relative to spot trading volumes, put premiums climbed to approximately 4 basis points—an all-time high in VanEck’s dataset.
The firm noted that this level is roughly three times higher than those recorded in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse and the Ethereum staking liquidity crisis.
Despite the heightened bearish positioning, VanEck pointed out that such extremes have historically aligned with market inflection points rather than continued downside. Over the past six years, similar options market signals were followed by average bitcoin gains of 13% over 90 days and 133% over 360 days.
The report also noted that on-chain activity remains subdued, while selling pressure from miners continues to be relatively contained.
