Shifts in long-term holder behavior suggest bitcoin’s downturn may be entering a more mature phase, though the road to a clear bottom could still involve a prolonged stretch of consolidation.
Investors continue to focus on two central questions: how much further bitcoin might decline and how long the current bear cycle will endure.
While “price pain”—sharp sell-offs and heightened volatility—has largely defined recent market action, a slower, more grinding force is also at play. Known as “time pain,” this phase is marked by extended periods of sideways movement that gradually wear down market participants through a lack of direction rather than sudden losses.
Bitcoin is now trading below $66,000, down more than 3% over the past day and roughly 45% off its October all-time high, placing the market nearly six months into its bearish trend.
On-chain indicators reinforce the idea that this process is still unfolding. Glassnode’s Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, which categorizes bitcoin supply based on the last time coins moved and weights them by realized price, highlights a steady rise in long-term holder participation.
Historically, market bottoms have coincided with long-term holders—defined as those holding for six months or longer—controlling at least 85% of total supply. Typically, prices find a floor first, followed by a gradual increase in long-term holder dominance as these investors accumulate at lower levels and hold through the downturn.
Currently, long-term holders account for roughly 80% of supply. If this upward trend continues, it may indicate that the market is approaching a bottoming phase. However, past cycles suggest that several more months of range-bound, low-volatility trading may still be required before a definitive floor is established.
