Bitcoin leads gold and stocks in post-crisis recoveries, Mercado Bitcoin analysis shows
Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, as well as equities, in the weeks following major global disruptions, according to a new study by Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The research, conducted by the firm’s head of research Rony Szuster, examined 60-day periods after significant economic and geopolitical events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. tariff shocks. In each instance, Bitcoin delivered stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500.
One case highlighted in the study followed the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April last year. Over the next two months, Bitcoin rose 24%, compared with gains of 8% for gold and 4% for the S&P 500.
A similar pattern emerged during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020. In the 60 days that followed, Bitcoin climbed 21%, again outperforming traditional assets.
Szuster emphasized that early market reactions during crises can be misleading. In the immediate aftermath, investors often sell assets to reduce risk or raise liquidity, which can temporarily push prices lower—even for defensive assets.
However, the data shows Bitcoin has consistently rebounded after these initial sell-offs and gone on to outperform in the recovery phase.
That trend appears to be playing out again during the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. According to Szuster, Bitcoin is currently the only one of the three assets in positive territory during the latest episode.
Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has gained more than 2.2%, rising from around $65,800 to roughly $67,300. Meanwhile, gold has fallen about 11%, and the S&P 500 has dropped 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2022.
Despite its well-known volatility, Szuster noted that Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset over the past decade, strengthening its case as a key component in modern portfolios.
