Bitcoin pushed toward the $70,000 mark as markets reacted to signs of potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict, alongside a sharp short squeeze that wiped out more than $270 million in bearish positions.
The broader crypto market moved higher in tandem with equities and index futures after an Axios report indicated that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire. The prospect of easing tensions—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—helped lift risk sentiment, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower.
Additional reports suggest Pakistan is mediating what’s being referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” which could see an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait. Despite the optimism, markets remain cautious.
On Polymarket, the probability of a ceasefire being reached this month has climbed to around 30%, up from 18% prior to the latest headlines. Still, oil prices remain elevated, and expectations persist that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady—factors that continue to temper enthusiasm.
Should a ceasefire materialize, analysts say a broader relief rally could further support risk assets. For now, however, traders appear to be approaching the developments with measured skepticism.
Derivatives positioning reflects a growing bullish tilt. Open interest in bitcoin and ether futures has risen by 7% and 11%, respectively, outpacing spot price gains and signaling fresh capital entering the market. Funding rates and cumulative volume deltas remain positive for both assets.
Among altcoins, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen double-digit increases in open interest paired with positive funding rates, indicating bullish sentiment. In contrast, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and HYPE are showing negative funding rates, suggesting a more bearish outlook.
Volatility has continued to decline, supporting the recent price strength. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has dropped below 50% for the first time since early February, while Ether’s EVIV has also fallen to multi-week lows.
Options markets highlight key levels to watch. On Deribit, the $60,000 bitcoin put and the $80,000 call each hold roughly $1.4 billion in open interest, marking them as critical zones for downside protection and upside positioning. A breakout beyond this range could trigger a sharp rise in volatility.
Despite bullish signals in futures markets, options traders remain cautious. Put options for BTC and ETH continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting ongoing demand for downside protection. Part of this skew is also driven by call overwriting strategies used to generate yield.
Token developments have added to the market narrative. Algorand’s ALGO token has surged nearly 50% over the past month following a Google Quantum AI research paper that highlighted its quantum-resistant design.
The report examined how blockchains could defend against future quantum computing threats capable of breaking current encryption systems. Algorand stood out for its use of FALCON, a post-quantum signature scheme selected by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Already integrated into the network for features such as state proofs and certain transactions, the technology has drawn renewed attention. ALGO has climbed from around $0.08 to nearly $0.12, pushing its market capitalization above $1 billion. The token is up more than 7% in the past 24 hours, supported by the broader market rally.
