Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is calling a bottom in equities—a view that could carry bullish implications for bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and the broader crypto market, given their close alignment with risk assets.
Lee argues the recent Iran ceasefire marks a key inflection point, shifting markets from escalation to de-escalation. In a CNBC interview, he said a break above the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average at 6,617 would confirm a “decisive move higher.” Futures have already pushed well beyond that level, trading near 6,820 by Thursday.
His thesis rests on two pillars.
First, equities held firm during peak geopolitical stress. Between mid-March and early April, the S&P 500 advanced from 6,300 to 6,600 even as oil surged from $87 to $116 and tensions intensified—suggesting markets had already priced in much of the risk.
Second, the ceasefire triggered what Lee describes as a “rate-of-change” shift. The immediate reaction was notable: equities rallied 2.5%, oil dropped roughly 15%, and the VIX slipped below 20 in a single session—classic signs of a rapid risk reset.
Still, the call is not without complications. Lee’s firm has significant exposure to crypto markets, including a recent purchase of more than 71,000 ETH, aligning its positioning with a bullish outcome.
More importantly, the durability of the ceasefire itself is already in question.
Iranian officials have indicated that multiple terms of the agreement have been breached, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Oil prices, after plunging, have begun to rebound—rising back toward $97.
If tensions escalate again, the setup quickly reverses. Higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical risk could push equities lower and drag crypto with them, challenging the notion that a durable bottom is already in place.
For now, markets are leaning into the idea of a turning point—but with the ceasefire under pressure, that thesis faces an immediate test.
