Bitcoin’s three-month run of outperformance against gold has come to a halt, with capital now rotating back into precious metals amid a shift in ETF flows.
The change in momentum is reflected in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which compares BTC’s per-coin dollar value with gold’s per-ounce price — a widely watched gauge of investor preference between the two “store of value” assets. From early March, bitcoin dominated, pushing the ratio higher from around 12 to 18 as demand strengthened.
That trend has now reversed. The ratio has stalled in recent sessions and, over the past 24 hours, broken decisively lower, ending the multi-month uptrend. A breach of the rising trendline — which had defined bitcoin’s relative strength — signals a potential shift in momentum back in favor of gold, according to technical analysis principles.
This move suggests more than just a chart-based development. It may reflect a broader repositioning by investors.
Earlier this year, during the escalation of the Iran conflict and a spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel, market participants sought safe-haven assets. Bitcoin initially benefited from that rotation, as seen in the rising BTC-to-gold ratio. However, the latest breakdown indicates that investors may now be favoring gold once again.
While trendline breaks can sometimes prove short-lived, current signals point to the possibility of near-term gold outperformance.
Fund flows reinforce that view. U.S.-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced more than $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, pressured by rising Treasury yields and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.
In contrast, gold and precious metals funds are attracting fresh capital. These funds recorded $2.34 billion in inflows in the week ended May 20, marking a second consecutive week of gains, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $75,600, down 0.3% on the day, while gold held steady around $4,500, underscoring the shifting balance between the two assets.
