Arca is attributing last week’s Bitcoin decline to Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, directly contradicting Michael Saylor’s claim that AI-driven capital rotation was the main cause of the market drop.
While Strategy chairman Michael Saylor suggested that AI infrastructure spending was pulling capital away from Bitcoin and triggering the selloff, crypto investment firm Arca argues the pressure came from Saylor’s own company instead.
Arca CIO Jeff Dorman wrote in a weekly note that the “selling pressure last week was clearly due to the Saylor/MSTR news,” pushing back against what he described as “gaslighting from MSTR and other Bitcoin bulls.”
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell nearly 14% to around $60,000 during the week. The decline followed Strategy’s June 1 disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC in the prior week, while still holding a massive 845,256 BTC worth billions.
Saylor, however, linked the downturn to broader macro forces, arguing that rapid AI infrastructure expansion is absorbing capital at unprecedented levels. He maintained that this does not weaken Bitcoin, but instead reinforces its long-term value proposition as scarce digital capital.
Arca strongly rejected that explanation.
Dorman argued that the real issue was not the relatively small 32 BTC sale—worth about $2.5 million—but the signal it sent: that Strategy may be forced to sell significantly more Bitcoin to meet cash dividend obligations tied to its preferred shares, including STRC.
In Arca’s view, Strategy has made a series of questionable financial moves in recent weeks. Dorman pointed out that the firm used available cash to retire zero-coupon debt, then unsettled markets by disclosing a Bitcoin sale that barely covers a month of preferred dividends. With only about five months of cash flow remaining, he said investors are now questioning what comes next.
The bullish scenario
Dorman outlined one scenario that could restore confidence: if Strategy files an 8-K showing it has raised $2–$4 billion through a mix of MSTR equity sales and Bitcoin sales, enough to cover preferred dividends through September 2028. Such a move, he said, would remove fears of forced selling and likely trigger a strong market rally.
However, he doubts Saylor would take that approach.
Instead, Dorman suggested Saylor is “addicted to buying Bitcoin,” making it more likely that Strategy continues gradual monthly BTC sales just to meet dividend obligations—creating persistent selling pressure in the market.
He warned that when a major long-term buyer becomes a forced seller, markets tend to keep pricing in that stress until conditions deteriorate further.
Market structure and silver lining
Despite the volatility, Dorman noted a positive structural sign: Bitcoin’s decline initially occurred in isolation, without immediately dragging the broader crypto market down with it. He said this suggests investors are increasingly distinguishing between different digital assets rather than selling everything indiscriminately.
Bitcoin dominance also slipped for a second straight week, falling below 58% for the first time since September.
Early in the week, BTC dropped on its own specific news while other crypto assets remained stable—an indication, according to Dorman, that the market is becoming more selective and sophisticated in its risk pricing.
However, by the end of the week, the selling pressure intensified enough that most major crypto assets eventually moved lower alongside Bitcoin.
