The SPCX perpetual contract is still trading above SpaceX’s $135 offer price, but it has dropped sharply from its May peak as traders reduce expectations for the IPO’s first-day premium.
SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is preparing for a blockbuster listing that values the company at about $1.8 trillion, with shares priced at $135 each. Investors will only discover how the stock performs once it begins trading on the public market.
In the meantime, Hyperliquid is hosting a “synthetic” version of SpaceX shares that offers one of the few real-time signals for how sentiment is evolving ahead of the debut.
That synthetic market has already seen its premium fade, even as reports suggest the IPO is more than four times oversubscribed.
A widely followed 5x-leveraged perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, known as SPCX, has now declined for three straight weeks. The contract recently traded around $157, roughly 27% below its mid-May high near $216 after briefly touching $230.
This doesn’t imply bearishness toward SpaceX itself—SPCX still trades above the $135 IPO price. However, expectations for a first-day pop have been significantly scaled back. The contract previously implied a premium of around 60% over the IPO price in May, but that has narrowed to roughly 16% more recently.
The company has fixed its IPO price at $135 per share, meaning there is no traditional pricing range for bookbuilding adjustments. Unlike typical offerings where underwriters adjust pricing based on demand, SpaceX is offering a take-it-or-leave-it structure.
This makes the SPCX perpetual one of the only continuously updating price proxies for SpaceX before the stock actually begins trading.
Importantly, the contract does not confer any ownership stake or allocation rights in SpaceX. It is a cash-settled derivative used purely to speculate on where the stock might trade once listed, and traders can lose money even before the IPO opens.
On the institutional side, demand still appears extremely strong. Reuters reported that SpaceX has attracted over $250 billion in orders for a $75 billion raise, making the deal heavily oversubscribed. Such levels of demand often include inflated order sizes, especially in high-profile IPOs.
Despite recent weakness, SPCX pricing still suggests traders expect some premium over the $135 listing price.
The softer tone may also reflect broader market conditions. Crypto markets have weakened heading into the IPO, with bitcoin still trading well below its recent highs, while some investors may be liquidating positions to raise cash for potential SpaceX allocations—adding further pressure across risk assets tied to the same speculative flow.
