Bitcoin Futures Spread Plunges, Wiping Out Post-Election Gains as Macro Risks Take Center Stage
The bullish sentiment that followed Donald Trump’s election victory has all but disappeared, with a key Bitcoin (BTC) futures indicator signaling fading enthusiasm.
The spread between CME’s next-month and front-month Bitcoin futures contracts has contracted to $495, its lowest level since November 5, per TradingView data. That’s a dramatic retreat from its peak of $1,705 in mid-December, effectively reversing the so-called “Trump bump” that once fueled market optimism.
Political Tailwinds Fade, Macro Pressures Take Over
The contraction suggests that traders are shifting their focus from political narratives to broader economic factors.
“The Bitcoin market has moved past the idea that a pro-crypto President will single-handedly drive prices higher,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks. “Macro correlations are back in control, and traders are pricing in economic uncertainty rather than political promises.”
Bitcoin has declined 20% from its February highs, mirroring an 8% drop in the Nasdaq, as concerns over inflation, trade policies, and global instability weigh on investor sentiment.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Falls Short of Expectations
Another factor dampening enthusiasm is Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative, which was expected to spark government-led BTC accumulation. Instead, the plan focuses on retaining confiscated Bitcoin rather than actively buying more.
“This was not the catalyst traders were hoping for,” said Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics. “Many assumed the U.S. would start purchasing Bitcoin, but the announcement only confirmed that no sales would take place—good, but not the game-changer bulls wanted.”
Futures Market Still in Contango, Signaling Long-Term Confidence
Despite the narrowing spread, Bitcoin futures remain in contango, meaning longer-dated contracts are still trading at a premium—an indication that long-term optimism hasn’t completely vanished.
“Bitcoin’s pullback seems more like a recalibration than a structural breakdown,” Erdösi noted. “Futures data suggests this is a short-term repositioning rather than a full-fledged reversal.”
With the political momentum fading, Bitcoin’s next move will likely be dictated by macroeconomic forces, institutional positioning, and broader risk sentiment across global markets.
